Can national commercial radio survive in the new media landscape?
Linear radio (FM and DAB) continues to decline and has a reach of 5,176,000 listeners per day in 2024, in the target group 12–79 years old, according to Kantar Sifo. Ten years ago, radio had 5,275,000 daily listeners with a reach of 68 percent. Since then, Sweden's population has increased by 7.5 percent.
The two oligopolies for commercial radio has declined the most and the 10 year downward trend continues. A decisive factor is competition from public broadcaster Sveriges Radio, which now has a market share of 78.8% compared to commercial radio's 21.2%. The increasing listening to streaming audio media such as Spotify and podcasts is also important. Read more about this and our analysis:
For total radio listening, the weekly reach is 7,288,000 listeners, which can be compared to 7,305,000 listeners last year, a marginal decrease. Commercial radio, however, is losing more. Daily reach is down 4.4 percent to 2,266,000 listeners, while weekly reach is down 2.7 percent to 4,882,000 listeners.
Over the full year, Viaplay Radio is losing the most in reach; 1,201,000 listeners per day, which is a loss of 7.5 percent compared to the previous year. Weekly reach is down 6.2 percent to 3,174,000 listeners. Bauer Media, on the other hand, will lose 4.2 percent of its daily reach and will be 1,528,000 listeners in 2024. Weekly reach will decrease by 2.1 percent to 3,724,000 listeners.
Viaplay is now marketing DAB in the locations where it is available, which it has not done before. The plan is also to expand DAB to additional locations. Viaplay's DAB channels can reach approximately 40 percent of the population and the target is 60 percent this year. However, competitor Bauer Media is taking a wait-and-see approach to DAB.
Compared to surrounding countries, national commercial linear radio has its smallest listener share in Sweden; 21%. In Denmark and Norway it is around 30%. In Finland it is a full 50%.
Viaplay wants to save the situation with more channels on DAB. However, there is no international experience that the radio medium is saved commercially by either more channels or DAB. The exception may be the UK, where those who listen to DAB mainly still do so on an older version of DAB that was introduced in 1995 (i.e. not DAB+). And Norway is still the only country in the world that has switched off its national FM network and forced its citizens to switch to DAB+. And Switzerland is trying go on the same path. However, FM is retained for local radio in both countries.
Analysis
The Norwegian experience shows that DAB hardly saved radio from continued decline and Viaplay has not shown any profits from it so far. The system is currently having a respite from the doom thanks to the fact that DAB+ is available in new cars (along with FM and the Internet) in Europe.
Commercial radio is doing best in Finland, which has also clearly rejected DAB and made FM mandatory in new cars. But the most important objection to DAB is that in digital contexts it is an outdated system with no global demand. The system also does not work in smartphones. If FM is to be replaced in the future, it will be with more modern platforms such as DRM and 5G Broadcast. According to Sveriges Radio (SR), about one (1) percent of the population listens to radio via DAB (2023). In the public service consulation presented 2024 there was no political support for a goverment funded DAB expansion of national DAB network by the public broadcaster.
The fact that Viaplay is pushing for other players - SR and Bauer - to also invest in DAB obscure s the real problem; commercial radio cannot offer listeners sufficiently attractive content. Viaplay's main owner, French Canal+, may lose patience and consider selling the radio operation as television is the core business for the company. The question, however, is whether there are interested buyers in this scanty market.
The Ministry of Culture has presented a proposal that FM licences for the next licence period, which begins in 2027, should not be distributed through a closed auction but with a new annual fee corresponding to 3 percent of the industry's advertising revenue. This spring, the government will submit the bill "A long-term sustainable commercial radio business", which will then be considered by the Riksdag in the autumn. This could be a salvation for commercial radio, at least for the time being.
For many years, directives to government investigations into radio have begun with the phrase "commercial radio is an important part of the Swedish media landscape". But the way in which advertising-financed radio has significance in the society has never been reported. It is time to think about this, even if it is already dusk.
Facts
Public broadcaster SR mainly has two linear main channels P1 and P4 with a market share of 70% and two complementary P2 and P3 with a share of 10%. The commercial de facto duopoly Bauer and Viaplay each operate ten channels with a combined share of about 20% of listening in Sweden. The two companies are also major players in Norway. Bauer also in Denmark and Finland.
Bauer Media is a subsidiary of Bauer in Hamburg. Viaplay is now controlled by the French Canal+ which is owned by the right-wing populist media mogul Vincent Bolloré. Bauer and Viaplay Radio together have about 300 employees and a turnover of about 1 billion SEK, which is about 1 (one) percent of the advertising pie in Sweden.
Listening to local linear radio as local radio, is not included in the surveys that the major broadcasters are commissioning from Kantar Sifo. - Local radio in P4 can be considered regional radio.
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